Cliff # 1

About cliffeconomics

This blog offers original economic thought and policy recommendations on Germany, the euro area, and whatever cliff has on his mind.

123

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

No interest cut, please!

The IMF's deflation "ogre" has given way to a "lowflation" lithany in a recent IMF blog, which culminates in a call for lower ECB rates. Among other arguments, the well written post points out two key problems from low inflation: The first problem is the presence of nominal rigidities, i.e. the difficulty of cutting wages and prices. The internal devaluation that countries in the euro periphery need to accomplish requires an inflation differential to Germany and the rest of the core.  Nominal rigidity in wages make this adjustment harder to achieve if inflation in the core is low. And where prices must fall but can’t, the adjustment falls on volumes: lower output, lower employment. But here are some important qualifiers: 1) The nominal rigidities are the underlying problem. The nominal rigidities are a reflection of labor market inflexibilities...

Friday, March 14, 2014

Resolving Greece's debt overhang: swapping away

On Vox, Peter Allen, Barry Eichengreen and Gary Evans deploy acrobatic arithmetics for reducing Greece's debt through asset sales. It seems academic circles, not markets, are most hung up with Greece's debt! The Peter-Barry-Gary proposal goes as follows: "The ECB, ESM and EU should commit a portion of their holdings of Greek government loans and bonds to a swap facility. Private investors interested in purchasing government assets could then buy loans or bonds with a face value of €1,000 for, say, €500. The Greek government, for its part, could agree to accept those bonds as currency for, say, €750 when selling government property at auction." Greece's EFSF debt, at long maturities and low and deferred interest rates, is nothing to give away easily. Greece should guard its official debt like a jewel! The cash savings from reducing Greece's official...