Cliff # 1

About cliffeconomics

This blog offers original economic thought and policy recommendations on Germany, the euro area, and whatever cliff has on his mind.

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Saturday, November 30, 2013

Sovereign bank link? Bank sovereign link? Or linking banks to sovereigns?

The sovereign bank link and the imperative to break it is fairly ubiquitiuous in today's discussion how to improve the financial system. Like with so many overused and underthought buzz words, the sovereign bank link embeds several aspects which circumscribe different problems and solicit different solutions: Banks' preference for public over private lending: Public sector loans and sovereign bonds often enjoy privileged treatment, such as zero risk weight among other. This is often thought to bias banks towards lending to the public sector. However, competition will cause this benefit to accrue to the debtor, not the creditor: all else equal, the cost of funds for the public debtor becomes cheaper than for private debtors, resulting in a lower hurdle rate for public than for private investments. This can lead to an unhealthy allocation of savings indeed....

Saturday, November 16, 2013

Germany's current account surplus: Structural or cyclical?

A little discussed aspect of the recurring discussion about Germany's current account balance is the distinction between its structural versus cyclical nature, and the implications thereof. On one hand, the case for reigning in the current account surplus may not be given if it is driven by certain structural factors, such as demographics. On the other hand, it would be a grave policy mistake if structural measures were taken to moderate a cyclical current account surplus. As with policies that attempt to influence the cycle in general, applying the right dose at the right time is tricky, and has often proven ineffective. How can the structural...