Cliff # 1

About cliffeconomics

This blog offers original economic thought and policy recommendations on Germany, the euro area, and whatever cliff has on his mind.

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Tuesday, September 10, 2013

A second Greek debt restructuring (1): when and how much?

Much is being said about this, over and again. Private bondholders have already received a haircut, and there is no rationale for official creditors (European partners and the IMF) to annul part of their claim as long as they provide for Greece's financing need in full. Financing under the current program lasts until 2016, although euro member states have pledged support longer if needed. The discussion about debt relief will only become ripe once Greece prepares for its re-entry into international financial markets. In addition to a sustainable debt ratio, investors likely require (i) solid economic growth; (ii) a revival of employment; and (iii) a healthy primary budget surplus. While the IMF projects these conditions to be in place from 2016, no market funding is penciled in at least until 2018 (the last year shown in the IMF's tables). At that point, financing...